2023 NFL Season: Predicting the passing touchdown leaders

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner, as teams begin the last phase of their offseason programs. Which players will lead NFL in passing TDs?  Quarterbacks are going to be center stage yet again in 2023.  Last year, Patrick Mahomes led the league in TD passes with 41.  Josh Allen and Joe Burrow were tied for second at 35 touchdowns.

Rounding out the top five was Geno Smith with 30 and Kirk Cousins (who is criminally underrated) with 29.  Should we expect Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow to lead the league yet again in passing TDs?  Well, that would not be a terrible bet.

However, I think there are a few other quarterbacks who have the potential to throw for a ton of yards and touchdowns that may not be talked about among the elite signal callers in the NFL.  Let’s predict the passing TD leaders for the 2023 NFL season.

2023 NFL Season: Predicting the passing touchdown leaders

1. Patrick Mahomes, 37

Patrick Mahomes is probably going to lead the league in passing touchdowns again.  He’s already done it twice in his five-year starting career in the NFL.  He’s topped out at 50 TD passes, which he threw back in 2018, and on a side note, Mahomes hasn’t really come close to touching Peyton Manning’s 55 TD pass record back in 2013, which makes that record even more impressive, considering it was done in 16 games.

If anyone can break Manning’s record, it’s probably Mahomes, but he’ll be a ways short in 2023.

2. Joe Burrow, 36

Joe Burrow has thrown for 34 and 35 touchdown passes in the 2021 and 2022 seasons.  The mid-30s mark feels like a solid ceiling for Burrow, who has proven to be the only QB who can go toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes.  The Mahomes/Burrow rivalry might be this generation’s Manning/Brady brawl.

The one thing that could propel Burrow to lead the league in the 2023 NFL season in passing touchdowns is a potentially improved offensive line that now features Orlando Brown Jr at left tackle and Jonah Williams at right tackle.

With two solid interior players in Alex Cappa and Ted Karras, the Bengals might finally have adequate protection for Burrow.

3. Trevor Lawrence, 33

Trevor Lawrence is going to get some MVP votes in the 2023 NFL season.  His quick turnaround in year one with Doug Pederson was astounding.  He threw for 25 touchdowns against eight interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 95.2.  I think with Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense being in year two in Pederson’s system, and the addition of Calvin Ridley, the Jags’ offense is going to explode.

Trevor Lawrence is also an extremely talented and complete QB.  There aren’t a lot of weaknesses in his game, so I think the sky’s the limit for the young QB.